In the absence of significant geopolitical developments, lower levels of volatility should be considered the primary scenario for gold. The likelihood of increased volatility remains low under current conditions.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
Gold is in a clear short-term downtrend on the hourly chart, trading below both the 30 and 60-period moving averages.
The price is currently attempting a minor bounce from the 3312.00 support level and is now testing the 30-period moving average as its first line of resistance.
The overall outlook remains bearish. A failure at this resistance would likely see a retest of the 3312.00 low. Only a decisive break above the moving averages would challenge the current downward momentum.
XAU/USD daily charts review
The daily chart for Gold shows a prolonged period of sideways consolidation following a strong prior uptrend. The market is currently directionless, trading within a well-defined range between the major support at 3285.00 and a strong resistance zone of 3410.00-3450.00. This neutrality is confirmed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is hovering around the 50 mark and indicates a balance between buyers and sellers.The outlook will remain neutral until a decisive breakout from this range occurs. A sustained daily close above 3450.00 would signal a bullish continuation of the long-term uptrend. Conversely, a breakdown below the 3285.00 support would be a significant bearish signal, likely triggering a deeper correction. The market is awaiting a catalyst to determine Gold's next major trend.
Daily Candle Chart
Traders going long
Continuing previous weeks bullish momentum 55.40 % of volume was in long positions. Traders are still going long.
In the 1000 point range around the latest price, the pending orders were 23 % to sell the metal.