On Wednesday, the recovery faced the resistance of the 100-hour simple moving average and the 2,420.00 level. Economic Calendar Analysis
On Thursday, the US Advance GDP might impact the markets via an adjustment of the value of the US Dollar. Better GDP means that the US does not need to cut rates, which would keep the Dollar higher. Bad GDP data indicates that the Fed can cut, which would reduce the value of the USD.
On Friday, at 12:30 GMT, the top event of the week will take place. The US Core PCE Price Index will move the markets. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index is expected to impact the markets by revealing whether inflation has increased or continues to decline. In general, the markets expect a reading of a monthly price increase of 0.2%. If the number is higher, the Dollar should surge. A reading below +0.2% is set to cause a decline of the USD.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
A move above 2,420.00 could be slowed down by the 200-hour simple moving average and the 2,450.00 level, before the commodity approaches the recently booked all-time-high levels.
However, in the case of a decline of the metal's price support could be found in the 50-hour simple moving average and the 2,383.70/2,400.00 range. If the range fails to hold, the 2,370.00 level might act as support.
XAU/USD daily charts review
The price has retreated to the support and resistance range at 2,390.00/2,430.00.A move below the support range could result in a decline to the 2,350.00 level, which is strengthened by the 50 and 100-day simple moving averages.
On the other hand a bounce off from the zone would confirm that it is still capable of keeping the metal's price up and new all-time-highs are possible.
Daily Candle Chart
Traders remain short
Since last week and up to Monday, 75% of traders were short, as they expected a further decline.
However, last week, pending orders for gold in the 1000 point range around current price were 83% to sell. On Monday, traders had set up to buy and close short positions, as 78% of orders were to buy.
On Wednesday, positions were 74% short and orders were just 54% to buy.