The US Consumer Price Index will impact the market this week. Everything else is noise or will have less impact. CPI data sets are scheduled to be published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT.
Prior to the CPI, on Tuesday, at 12:30 GMT the United States Producer Price Index will be published. The data shows price level changes at the producer level. Usually, a price increase at this level results in a price hike at the consumer level. Namely, PPI grows before the CPI.
On Wednesday, together with the CPI data another data set will be published. The Retail Sales data is expected to provide additional insight into the situation in the United States. It could reveal that despite higher prices, people keep buying goods. On the other hand, the Retail Sales might show that the consumer has had enough and has reduced spending.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
A resumption of the metal's surge is set to face the 2,355.00/2,360.00 range as resistance. Higher above, the 2,380.00 could slow down a surge, before the 2,400.00 mark is reached.
However, a decline below 2,333.75 is expected to find support in the 100-hour simple moving average, prior to the rate retreating to the 2,320.00 level and the 200-hour simple moving average.
XAU/USD daily charts review
The decline of the metal's price that was correctly forecast is over. The metal has revealed a support zone near the 2,300.00 and most recently broken the channel down pattern that captures the metal's correction. In general, the price had surged too high to fast. Selling had to occur, before more gains occur.In regards to the future, the 50-day simple moving average is expected to push the metal's price into testing the resistance of the 2,400.00 mark.
Daily Candle Chart
Traders remain short
At the start of the week, traders were still bearish, as 70% of open positions were short. Meanwhile, pending orders were 67% to buy.
Traders were less short at the start of the month, which signals that losses have been suffered during the ongoing resumption of the surge.