On Monday, Dukascopy Analytics spotted a channel down pattern, which has been guiding the yellow metal's price decline. In the meantime, the commodity price had ended trading sideways above the 1,800.00 level and passed below it.
On Tuesday, the price could be impacted by the 15:00 GMT publication of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
On Wednesday and Thursday, the markets are unlikely going to be impacted by macroeconomic data releases. On those days the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, US Unemployment Claims and the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI are set to be published. All of these releases have not caused increases of USD volatility despite being discussed by the financial media.
On Friday, the US will publish monthly employment data. Namely, the Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change and the Average Hourly Earnings.
Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases of this and other currency exchange rates.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
On Monday, Dukascopy Analytics spotted that the recent decline of the yellow metal's price has been occurring in a simple channel down pattern. In the meantime, the rate continues to be impacted by the support and resistance of round price levels.
Previously, the rate trade sideways above the 1,800.00 mark, which was passed at mid-day on Friday.
In regards to the near term future, the rate was expected to continue to decline in the pattern's borders from one round price level to another. In the meantime, additional resistance could be provided by the hourly simple moving averages.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the yellow metal has reached the support of a large scale channel down pattern. In addition, a 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level was located at the 1,763.74 level. On Monday, it appeared that this level kept the price from declining.
Meanwhile, the support of the 200-day SMA was passed on Friday together with the 1,800.00 mark.
Daily Candle Chart
Sentiment changes
Since Thursday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange the sentiment was bullish, as of total open position volume 68% was long.
On Monday, the sentiment declined, as 66% of volume was long.
Meanwhile, in the 1000-pip range around the metal's price the pending orders were 63% to buy the metal.