After falling to the 1,674.40 level on Friday, the yellow metal's price recovered on Monday. By the middle of Monday's trading, the rate had reached the resistance of the 200-hour SMA at 1,690.00
In the case of the 200-hour SMA failing to hold, the rate could aim for the 1,700.00 level.
On Thursday, at 12:30 GMT, the US Unemployment Claims are scheduled to be released. Most likely, the event would reveal another major decline in US employment.
Also on Thursday, at 13:45 US Manufacturing PMI could cause a move, as in February and March it created large moves.
Last but not least, a notable reaction could be created by the US Durable Goods orders on Friday at 12:30 GMT.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
It is likely that yellow metal could pushed down by the 200-hour SMA near 1,690.00 to the 1,640.00/1,660.00 cluster. However, if the rate fails to surpass the 1,670.00 level, it is likely that gold could consolidate against the US Dollar in the short term.
Also, it is unlikely that bulls could prevail, and the exchange rate could exceed the 1,700.00/1.710.00 area due to the resistance formed by the 100– and 200-hour SMAs, as well the monthly R1.
Hourly Chart
The daily candle chart has been replaced with the weekly candle chart. On the chart the high levels of 2012 and 2011 have been added. These levels could provide resistance.
In the meantime, take into account that the surge started in the middle of March, when the metal's price found support in the 1,450.00 level and the 55-week simple moving average.
Weekly Chart
Traders are short on gold
On Monday, the Swiss Foreign Exchange sentiment was 56% short. Namely, 56% of open gold position volume was in short positions.
Traders went short on gold at the end of the last week.