Gold retraces back down

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

On Tuesday, the yellow metal had retreated down to the hourly simple moving averages. By retracing down, the bullion removed some of the overbought pressure that appeared during this week.

By the middle of the day's London trading hours, the commodity price had found support in the 100-hour SMA near 1,635.00 and attempted to pass the 55-hour SMA at 1,655.00.

Economic Calendar Analysis



During the week there are no notable events that might impact gold. However, some economic calendars have US events listed as high impact.

On Thursday, at 15:30 GMT the US Durable Goods Orders are set to be published.

At the same time, the US Preliminary GDP is scheduled to be released.

The week's data is available. Click on the link below to see the historical data tables with the reactions to various events.

XAU/USD short-term forecast

Yesterday, the XAU/USD exchange rate declined to the 55-hour SMA located near 1,650.00. During Tuesday morning, the rate tried to surpass the 100-hour SMA near 1,635.00.

On the one hand, the yellow metal could gain support of the 100-hour SMA and trade upwards within the following trading session. In this case the rate would have to surpass the monthly R2 at 1,667.43.

On the other hand, gold could remain under the 55-hour SMA and trade sideways against the Greenback in the short term.

Meanwhile, it is unlikely that bears could prevail, and the rate could decline below 200-hour SMA near 1,610.00.

Hourly Chart



On the daily candle chart, the pattern, which is expected to guide the rate during the next couple of months, has been pierced.

Note that its upper border had been tested in this way at the start of the year. It could be the case that the piercing of the upper trend line would not result in a breaking of the pattern.

Daily Chart


Traders are short on gold

On Tuesday, the Swiss Foreign Exchange gold sentiment was 61% short. Namely, 61% of open position volume was in short positions.

At the middle of Monday's GMT trading hours, the sentiment was 60% short.

Meanwhile, in the 1000 base point range around the current metal's price the pending orders were balanced – 50% of orders were to buy and 50% to sell.

Previously, the orders were 87% to buy.

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