EUR/USD reaches 1.1000 support

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
On Wednesday, the EUR/USD rate pierced the support of the 1.1000 level. Namely, it traded shortly below this mark.

However, it does not indicate that the rate is set to reach new low levels. The pair was piercing the 1.1000 mark the same way in November when the rate eventually found support and surged.

ECB Monetary Policy Statement

The European Common Currency depreciated against the US Dollar, following the ECB Monetary Policy Statement released on Thursday at 12:45 GMT. The EUR/USD exchange currency rate lost 54 pips or 0.49% after the release. Note that right after the release the rate gained 19 pips or 0.17%. The Euro continued trading at the 1.1055 level against the Greenback after the release.

The European Central Bank released the Monetary Policy Statement where the European policymakers provide in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that their vote on the monetary policy.

According to the official release: "The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within its projection horizon. The Governing Council will continue to make net purchases under its asset purchase programme (APP) at a monthly pace of €20 billion. The Governing Council expects them to run for as long as necessary to reinforce the accommodative impact of its policy rates, and to end shortly before it starts raising the key ECB interest rates."

Economic Calendar Analysis



On Wednesday, the US Federal Funds Rate is scheduled to be published at 19:00 GMT. The event has caused EUR/USD moves from 14.8 to 53.6 pips.

Note that the largest moves occurred during rate cuts. This time, no rate cut is expected. Due to that reason, a move of around 15 pips is more likely.

On Thursday, the US Advance GDP publication at 13:30 GMT is set to occur. The event has caused moves from 11.7 to 35.3 pips since October 2018.

The week's event historical data tables have been published. Click on the link below to read the article.

EUR/USD hourly chart's review

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair re-tested the lower boundary of a short-term descending channel at 1.1000. During today's morning, the pair was trading downwards.

Note that the exchange rate is still pressured by the 55-hour moving average, currently located at 1.1017. Thus, the rate could continue to go downwards along the lower channel line in the short run.

However, note that the currency pair could gain support of the weekly S1 at 1.0992. If the given level holds, the Euro could consolidate against the Greenback. It is unlikely that bulls could prevail, and the pair could exceed the 100-hour SMA at 1.1032.

Hourly Chart



On the daily candle chart, one can see how the rate found support in the 1.1000 level two times in November. It can be observed that the rate can trade just below the level for more than one consecutive trading session before starting a surge.

Daily chart


Traders reduce short sentiment

On Tuesday, 55% of open EUR/USD position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in short positions.

By the middle of Wednesday's GMT hours, the sentiment was 53% short.

Meanwhile, set up pending orders were neutral, as 54% of orders in the 100-pip range were to buy and 46% were to sell.

The orders were 53% to buy on Tuesday.

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