Gold could decline below 1,540.00

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

On Monday morning, the XAU/USD exchange rate tested the monthly R1 at 1,544.31.

Given that the rate is pressured by the 100- and 200-hour SMAs, it is likely that the price for gold could go downwards.

Economic Calendar Analysis

 This week's data releases will start with the US CPI and Core CPI on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT. 


Meanwhile, this week's scheduled event historical data tables have been published. Click on the link below to read the article.


XAU/USD short-term forecast

On Monday, the XAU/USD exchange rate declined to the 1,540.00 level. During today's morning, the rate tested the monthly R1 at 1,544.31.

Note that yellow metal is pressured by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour moving averages, currently located circa 1,555.00. Thus, it is likely that the rate could go downwards.

On the other hand, gold could trade sideways around the monthly R1 within the following trading session. Also, it is unlikely that bulls could prevail, and the price for gold could exceed the monthly R2 at 1,570.61.

Hourly Chart



For a time being, it appeared on the daily candle chart that a retracement down should occur due to the metal being overbought. The retracement started on Wednesday.

In general, on the daily candle chart the pair has no technical support as low as the 55 and 100-day simple moving averages that are located near the 1,500.00 level. If the support levels of the hourly chart fail, eventually the price could reach for the support of the SMAs.

Daily Chart


Traders stick to short positions

Since Monday, 54% of all open gold positions on the Swiss Foreign Exchange were short. The sentiment had remained near this level since Wednesday.

Meanwhile, in the 1000 base point range around the current metal's price the pending orders were slightly bullish – 61% of orders were to buy and 39% to sell.

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