GBP/USD traders remain short

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

The momentum created by the Federal Reserve rate cut was enough to push the rate through the resistance of a 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2918. By the middle of Thursday's London trading session, the pair had tested the resistance of the 1.2950 level.

In the near term future, the rate was expected to reach the resistance of the weekly R1 pivot point at 1.2970.

Economic Calendar

On Friday, November 1, the US Employment data set will be on focus - the Average Hourly Earnings, the Non-Farm Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate data will be published at 12:30 GMT.

This event has caused moves from 21.7 to 51.3 pips since June 2019.

Also on Friday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI survey results will be published at 14:00 GMT. The PMI release has caused reactions from 13.2 to 28.9 base points since June of this year.

For more detailed information take a look at the 28.10-01.11 Event Historical Reactions publication.

GBP/USD short-term review

On Thursday, the GBP/USD was heading to the resistance of the weekly R1 pivot point, which was located at the 1.2970 level.

In general, the rate was expected to trade below the pivot point until the hourly simple moving averages approach the rate. The approaching of the SMAs would signal an end of the pair being overbought.

On the other hand, the rate could consolidate by declining. In that case it would look for support in the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at hte 1.2918 level.

Hourly Chart



On the daily candle chart, the rate remains in the borders of a large scale ascending channel pattern. It is surging in its borders.

Meanwhile, the daily simple moving averages have been left far below the exchange rate. It is a signal that the GBP/USD is overbought. However, with the Brexit in the background, long term overbought and oversold indicators should better be ignored.

Daily chart


Short sentiment remains intact

On Wednesday, 67% of open GBP/USD position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in short positions.

By the middle of Thursday's trading, the sentiment had grown to 68%.

Meanwhile, trader orders were bearish. In the 100-pip range, 87% of orders were to sell and 13% were to buy.

Previously, the orders were 79% to sell.

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