AUD/JPY 1W Chart: Channel Down

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Considering that the pair has recently rebounded from the lower bound of the pattern, the near-term outlook is bullish. The gains, however, are to be limited by 83 yen, namely the upper bound of the pattern. The bears should then take control of the pair and initiate a new downward wave, which will presumably extend down to the falling support line at 70. This scenario is also supported by positioning in the SWFX market, where as many as 73% of traders are holding longs, meaning prolonged appreciation is highly unlikely. It will be a lot safer, however, to exit shorts before the rate hits 74.50, where massive demand is implied by the 2010, 2011 and 2012 lows.
© Dukascopy Bank SA
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