EUR/PLN 30M Chart: Channel Down

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
© Dukascopy Bank SA
We expect a small rebound of up to two groszy from 4.41 to precede a new bearish wave within the emerging descending channel. The intraday rally should be capped by the falling resistance trend-line at 4.43, although there is an additional dense supply area at 4.4360 consisting of the daily R1, recent highs and 200-period SMA.

As for the longer-term scenario, 4.390-4.395 appears to be the limit for the current downward momentum, being that demand there is implied by a five-week up-trend line. At the same time, the single currency is strongly oversold (72% of positions are short), meaning there is unlikely to be sufficient selling to push through any significant support levels.
© Dukascopy Bank SA
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