EUR/TRY 1H Chart: Channel Down

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
© Dukascopy Bank SA
We hold a bearish bias with respect to EUR/TRY. The main reason is the falling resistance trend-line, the beginning of which may be traced back to mid-October. The price is expected to bounce off of 3.0667 and push through the early Nov low. This will pave the way for a decline down to the lower boundary of the pattern, namely 3.0230, where we also have the Aug low. At the same time, a close above 3.0667 will imply a rally towards 3.1050 (weekly PP), but the recovery may have difficulties already at 3.0955, the current location of the 200-day SMA. However, the counter-argument is the sentiment in the market: the Euro is oversold, being that 74% of positions are short.
© Dukascopy Bank SA
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