EUR/TRY 4H Chart: Channel Down

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
© Dukascopy Bank SA
The Euro looks weak against the Turkish Lira. During the next few weeks the price is expected to fall down to 2.8520, namely to the May low, before we see any meaningful demand. In the short run the base case scenario is that EUR/TRY will bounce off of the falling resistance line at 2.98 and head towards the monthly S1. The SWFX market is also rather pessimistic with respect to the single currency, being that as many as 71% of all open positions are short.
On the other hand, a close above 2.98 will imply a rally to 3.00, where the monthly pivot point merges with the long-term moving average.
© Dukascopy Bank SA
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