USD/TRY 1H Chart: Two scenarios likely

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

Indicator 4H 1D 1W
MACD (12; 26; 9) Sell Sell Buy
RSI (14) Neutral Buy Neutral
Stochastic (5; 3) Neutral Neutral Buy
Alligator (13; 8; 5) Sell Sell Neutral
SAR (0.02; 0.2) Buy Buy Sell
Aggregate

The US Dollar has been depreciating against the Turkish Lira since the beginning of September. This movement has been bounded in a falling wedge.  

Currently, the currency pair is testing the upper wedge line at 5.2620. If given pattern does not hold, it is likely that a breakout north occurs in the nearest future, and the pair targets the Fibonacci 38.20% retracement at 5.8128.  

Otherwise, a reversal south occurs within following sessions, and the general direction is expected to remain south. Potential downside target is the Fibonacci 61.80% retracement at 6.0208.

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