EUR/USD should stay capped by up-trend

EUR/USD once again surged up to the rising resistance line, but still appears to be unable to penetrate it. Accordingly, even if a rally does emerge today, it should be shallow—a possibility of a breach of the resistance at 1.3711/1.3697 is extremely low. On the other hand, the near-term risks are skewed to the downside, despite the daily and weekly indicators being bullish.

Due to noticeable appreciation of the single European currency overnight there are now less bulls in the market—the percentage of long on EUR/USD positions declined from 46% to 44%. At the same time the share of buy orders placed on the currency pair grew from 51% to 54%.