EUR/USD looking to fail

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
© Dukascopy Bank SA
"EUR/USD is holding around 1.38, just under the year high reached late last week; portfolio shifts may be boosting the value of the single currency temporarily but the divergence between spot and fair value estimates (based on short-term rate spreads, we estimate EUR/USD "fair value" to be closer to 1.3350) and the shift in option risk reversals might be starting to make EUR downside positioning attractive again." 
- TD Securities (based on Director of Finance)

Pair's Outlook
Pair did not manage to pick up the pace and advance above the recent (October) high at 1.3833. That would have put 1.3863 and 1.3944, afterwards, on the map. Now, however, we expect to see the pair to fail and drift till 1.3659. Failure there would send the pair to 1.355 area.

Traders' Sentiment
Market sentiment remained exactly where it was since Friday—bears account for 63% of market participants. Distribution of pending orders, however, undergone a major change. Bullish side of it contracted by 23% and is at 37% today.

© Dukascopy bank SA

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