Euro zone economy improves at the end of 2014, Grexit still possible

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
"The uncompromising stance taken by both sides at times before the agreement highlights the possibility of a future policy mistake. 'Grexit' is not our base case, but will remain a risk as more detailed negotiations take place, and as the Greek government tries to maintain domestic support for the deal it secures"
-Fitch 


The modest increase in Euro zone economic output at the end of last year was supported by rising investment and exports, raising hopes that the currency bloc's recovery will strengthen this year. According to Eurostat, the combined gross domestic product of the 18 countries that use the Euro was 0.3% higher in the fourth quarter of last year than in the three months through September, marking a slight acceleration. Meanwhile, German industrial output rose for a fifth straight month in January, adding to signs that Europe's number one economy is gathering steam. In adjusted terms, production increased by 0.6% on a monthly basis, beating the 0.5% gain expectations, and following an upwardly revised December's figure of 1.0% rise. In annual terms, output rose 0.9% in January, compared with a revised 0.5% climb seen in the preceding month, while economists had expected a 0.2% negative growth.  Meanwhile, in Spain industrial sector slid into contraction in January, after recovering in the preceding month. Measured on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, industrial output fell 2% year-over-year in the reported month, after a revised 3.1% growth in December. Ahead of the Eurogroup meeting Fitch rating agency said that Grexit was still possible, despite the recently agreed four-month loan extension. However, the agency outlined that the country's exit from the Euro zone is unlikely to cause a catastrophic turmoil in the region.


© Dukascopy Bank SA

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