Ceasefire Under Pressure: DAX Faces Elevated Risk Amid Iran Tensions and Oil Market Volatility

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
After a last-minute ceasefire between the United States and Iran, the DAX initially surged. However, the optimism faded quickly. The index is below the 24,000 mark at the start of Thursday trading.

Investor confidence weakened again following intense Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon. In response, Iran threatened to withdraw from the ceasefire. Its foreign minister warned that the US must decide between honoring the truce or supporting further conflict through Israel. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump signaled readiness for escalation, stating that US forces would remain near Iran and could respond with force if needed.

Despite the ceasefire, Iran has interfered with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy route. Authorities instructed commercial vessels to coordinate with military forces and take alternative paths due to reported mine risks. Shipping traffic has reportedly slowed significantly, with only a few oil tankers allowed through since the agreement. US Vice President JD Vance highlighted how fragile the ceasefire remains, emphasizing that safe passage and reduced hostilities are essential for it to hold.



DEU.IDX/EUR chart shows a strong recovery where the price has successfully climbed above major moving averages and broken out of its previous downward trend. Currently trading around 23,948, the index is showing healthy bullish momentum as indicated by the rising RSI and the formation of higher lows along a new upward support line. While the price is approaching a significant resistance level at 24,530 that might cause a temporary pause, the overall structure remains positive as long as it stays above the key support at 23,120.

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