U.S. Manufacturing Expands in March as Costs and Global Risks Rise

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The March 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI report shows that U.S. manufacturing is still growing, marking its third straight month of expansion with a PMI of 52.7%. This also reflects a broader economic expansion that has now lasted 17 months, with GDP growing at about 1.8% annually.

The growth is mainly coming from higher production and steady new orders. Production has been rising for five months and picked up further in March, while new orders are still increasing, though at a slower pace than before. Customer inventories remain low, which is usually a good sign because it suggests companies will need to produce more soon. Most major industries are expanding, and overall, a majority of manufacturing sectors reported growth.

At the same time, there are strong inflation pressures and supply chain issues. Prices have jumped sharply to their highest level since mid-2022, driven by factors like conflict in the Middle East disrupting trade, rising costs of key materials like steel and aluminum, and ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and economic policy. Supplier deliveries are also slowing, which points to continued bottlenecks.



Some areas are still struggling. Employment in manufacturing continues to shrink, as companies are cautious about hiring and instead focus on managing current staff. Export orders have slipped slightly into decline, and inventories of raw materials are falling faster.

Even though the numbers show growth, the overall mood among industry leaders is quite negative. Many are worried about geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty, which are making it harder to plan and increasing cost pressures.
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