Empire State Manufacturing Survey: New York Factory Activity Stalls in March but Outlook Remains Strong

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey for March 2026 indicates that manufacturing activity in New York State remained essentially unchanged compared with the previous month. The survey's headline index registered -0.2, signaling that overall business conditions were nearly flat. Roughly equal shares of firms reported improvements and declines in activity, effectively balancing each other out.

Despite the stagnant headline reading, underlying indicators presented a mixed picture. New orders showed modest growth, with the index rising to 6.4, suggesting a slight increase in demand. However, shipments declined, posting a reading of -6.9, indicating that manufacturers sent out fewer goods during the month. As shipments slowed while orders increased, unfilled orders accumulated, pushing the backlog index up to 10.8.

Supply chain conditions also tightened. Firms reported longer delivery times from suppliers, with the delivery-time index climbing to 13.7, and some businesses indicated greater difficulty securing necessary materials. These constraints contributed to a buildup in inventories as companies held onto goods and inputs for longer periods.



Cost pressures remained present but showed signs of easing. The index measuring prices paid for raw materials declined sharply by 13 points to 36.6, indicating that input costs continued to rise but at a significantly slower pace than in the previous month. Meanwhile, the index tracking prices received for finished goods remained relatively steady, implying that manufacturers continued to pass some costs on to customers.

Looking ahead, manufacturers expressed strong optimism about future conditions. The six-month outlook index climbed to 31.0, reflecting widespread expectations of stronger business activity. Firms anticipate increases in new orders, higher shipment volumes, and additional hiring in the coming months. Notably, plans for capital expenditures—investments in major assets such as machinery, technology, and facilities—rose to 21.6, reaching a multi-year high and signaling confidence in longer-term growth prospects.
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