US GDP Growth Slows to 1.4% in Q4 2025: Advance Estimate

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to the advance estimate. This marked a slowdown from 4.4 percent in the third quarter. For the full year, real GDP increased by 2.2 percent, down from 2.8 percent in 2024. The fourth-quarter growth was mainly driven by higher consumer spending and investment, though declines in government spending and exports, along with slower consumer spending, contributed to the deceleration. Investment gains helped offset part of the drop. For 2025 overall, growth was similarly supported by consumer spending and investment.



Inflation rose slightly in the fourth quarter, with the gross domestic purchases price index up 3.7 percent. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 2.9 percent, while core PCE rose by 2.7 percent. For the full year, the PCE price index increased by 2.6 percent and core PCE rose by 2.8 percent. The report, released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, was delayed due to an October–November 2025 government shutdown, which required the agency to estimate missing October price data.
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