Bitcoin Fundamental price analysis

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
Bitcoin is facing a precarious technical setup. On the weekly chart, Bitcoin shows a clear shift from a bullish trend to a corrective phase. The cryptocurrency failed to hold the 100,000 psychological level, forming a lower high compared to the peaks seen in late 2025. More concerning, BTC has dropped below the 60-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which had served as reliable dynamic support throughout 2024 and 2025; a weekly close below this SMA signals a major bearish shift. At the current price of 90,819, Bitcoin is hovering just above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 87,484.

Should this level fail, the next major support sits at the 50% retracement near 75,653. The chart also shows a series of lower lows beginning to emerge, indicating a transition into a medium-term downtrend.

Beyond technical factors, structural elements are weighing on Bitcoin. Global liquidity is tightening despite Fed rate cuts, and institutional buyers, which fueled the 2024–2025 bull run, have largely exhausted their buying power.



Geopolitical risks, including new tariff threats and ongoing uncertainty at the Federal Reserve, are driving investor sentiment toward risk-off assets like gold, leaving Bitcoin more vulnerable. If BTC loses the critical 87,484 level, further downside toward the 68,000–75,000 range becomes likely. In essence, the combination of technical weakness, tightening liquidity, and institutional exhaustion is creating a highly precarious environment for Bitcoin, with downside risk amplified by a shift in investor appetite away from digital assets.
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