TESLA stock Analysis

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
Tesla's 2026 trajectory is marked by a stark divergence between its soaring stock price and weakening automotive fundamentals. Since the June 2025 debut of its robotaxi service in Austin, shares have surged over 50%, fueled largely by Elon Musk's ambitious projections for full self-driving and ride-hailing, despite the service being limited to just Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area and still requiring human monitors.

This "Robotaxi Rally" contrasts sharply with the company's core automotive performance, as EV sales dropped a record 9% in 2025, with global deliveries falling 16% in Q4 alone following the expiration of the $7,500 US tax credit and growing consumer backlash over Musk's political involvement.



As of January 13, 2026, Tesla trades at $448.96, within a 52-week range of $214.25 to $498.83, with a market capitalization of $1.49 trillion, a beta of 2.35, and daily volatility around 4.1%, highlighting its sensitivity and high-beta behavior compared with the S&P 500, which returned 19% over the past year versus Tesla's 31% gain.

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