2026 Global Economic, Oil Demand, and Supply Outlook

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The outlook for 2026 suggests continued solid growth in both the global economy and oil demand, while growth in oil supply is expected to slow compared with 2025.

Global economic growth in 2026 is forecast to remain strong at 3.1%, supported by ongoing fiscal spending in major economies and easing trade uncertainty. Key contributors to this growth include India, expected to grow by 6.6%, China at 4.5%, and the United States at 2.1%. Additional fiscal stimulus is anticipated early in the year in the US, China, Japan, and Germany.

Global oil demand is projected to increase by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026, unchanged from the previous assessment. Most of this growth is expected to come from non-OECD countries, which are forecast to add more than 1.2 million barrels per day, led by Other Asia, India, and China. OECD countries are expected to contribute around 0.2 million barrels per day, mainly from the Americas.



On the supply side, forecast to grow by 0.6 million barrels per day in 2026, reaching an average of 54.8 million barrels per day. The main sources of growth are expected to be Brazil, Canada, the United States, and Argentina. In addition, natural gas liquids and other non-conventional liquids from countries are expected to rise by 0.1 million barrels per day. Demand for crude oil in 2026 is projected to remain at 43.0 million barrels per day, which is 0.6 million barrels per day higher than in 2025.

In the near term, from December 2025 onward, product markets are expected to be influenced by seasonal and structural factors. Winter conditions are likely to weigh on transport fuel demand, although the year-end holiday season should temporarily support markets through increased air travel and road transport, especially in the United States. At the same time, geopolitical constraints and unplanned refinery outages affecting Russian product supplies are expected to tighten markets and support higher product crack spreads, particularly for diesel.
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