U.S. real gross domestic product rises higher

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
In the second quarter of 2025, U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.8%, according to the third estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This marks a strong rebound from the revised 0.6% decrease in the first quarter. The growth was primarily driven by a reduction in imports and an increase in consumer spending, which outweighed declines in investment and exports. The GDP figure was revised up by 0.5 percentage points from the previous estimate, largely due to stronger consumer spending.



Real final sales to private domestic purchasers—reflecting consumer spending and private fixed investment—rose by 2.9%, a full percentage point above the prior estimate. From an industry perspective, private goods-producing industries saw a sharp 10.2% increase in real value added, while private services rose 3.5%. In contrast, the government sector contracted by 3.2%. Overall gross output rose 1.2% during the quarter.

Inflation indicators showed modest upward revisions. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.0%, while the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.1%. Excluding food and energy, the core PCE price index was up 2.6%.

Real gross domestic income (GDI) also increased by 3.8% but was revised down by 1.0 percentage point. Corporate profits rose by $6.8 billion; however, this was a downward revision of $58.7 billion, indicating weaker-than-expected earnings.
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