© Anders Eklof
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We are trading in some kind of a range in EUR/SEK, but we still believe that we have more upside potential in EUR/SEK in a month ahead. We are trading EUR/SEK partly on a back of a weakness in the Euro and some risk premium, due to the Euro debt crisis, which is not yet over. The Krona is considered to be somewhat of safe haven, but the focus currently lies more on relatively weak Swedish macro. We see that Swedish exporters are having quite tough times with subdued foreign demand and suffering from the recent strength in the Krona, which makes Swedish exports less competitive.
Do you anticipate Sweden's central bank to cut rates any time soon?
We expect Sveriges Riksbank, Sweden's central bank, to cut interest rates in December. I think the market players tend to prefer perhaps the Norwegian Krona, where there is no imminent rate cut.
What is your forecast for EUR/SEK and USD/SEK by the end of this year? What will be the key drivers?
We expect EUR/SEK to trade at 8.75 at the end of the year, while our forecast for USD/SEK is 6.85. The major drivers for the Swedish Krona are obviously Swedish macro environment and the ongoing Euro crisis. These are the main factors to watch. There might be also some seasonal outflows from the Swedish Krona in December as the Swedish government pension funds are actually going to buy foreign assets, and that is normally weighing to some extent on the Krona.
Do you anticipate that Sweden's economy will recover next year?
That is our forecast for now. We expect only one rate cut in December, that is why we believe that the Krona could strengthen a little bit going into next year, but obviously that is an uncertain forecast. Moreover, we see some downside risk to this projection.