This week, notable events are over. Next week, economic data could start impacting the markets on Tuesday.
On Tuesday, the Markit institute will release its Purchasing Managers Index results. Despite being called an index, it is actually a survey of managers. Two sectors are surveyed. Namely, the Services and Manufacturing firms are asked how they are seeing the future. A reading above 50.0 shows growth, but a reading below 50.0 equals expectations of a sector decline. However, the market reacts to whether the reading is above or below the expected survey result.
At 13:45 GMT, all of financial markets could move due to the publication of the United States Manufacturing and Services sectors Purchasing Managers Indices.
On Thursday, watch the publication of the US Advance quarterly GDP publication at 12:30 GMT. Note that the United States GDP data is published over the span of a quarter by giving updated data each month. First release has the most impact and is called the Preliminary. It is followed by the Advance GDP release, which is expected on Thursday. Afterwards, the GDP publications end with the Final GDP, and the cycle starts again with a new quarter.
Also on Thursday, watch the US Pending Home Sales data publication at 14:00 GMT. In the recent months, this previously ignored data set has started to impact the US Dollar.
On Friday, one of the top US data releases will occur. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure will reveal more detailed impact of inflation on the US consumer. US monetary policy makers have been observing this index instead of the Consumer Price Index to decide upon their policy.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
A move above 2,400.00 is expected to result in a surge to the 2,430.00 level, which marks the commodity price's all-time-high level. Higher above, the 2,450.00 level might turn into resistance.
In the case of a decline, the metal would look for support in the 200-hour simple moving average and the 2,355.00/2,360.00 range. Below these levels, note the 2,333.75/2,338.40 and 2,320.00/2,325.00 ranges.
XAU/USD daily charts review
On the daily candle chart, the metal shows to be massively overbought, as it has left far below the current price the daily simple moving averages. It needs to consolidate by trading sideways or declining, before resuming the broader surge.Daily Candle Chart
Gold traders remain short
Since previous Monday, 72-74% of Dukascopy traders were short, as that proportion of open position volume was in short positions.
In the meantime, pending orders in the 1000-pip range around the current price were 88% to buy the metal.
On Thursday, traders were 71% short, as some of the bears had closed their positions. Meanwhile, pending orders were 63% to buy.