After a short lived surge above 1,515.00 on Wednesday, gold declined back down to support levels near 1,505.00 on Thursday,
In general, a surge or sideways trading was speculated to be the most likely future scenarios for the commodity price. A decline is considered unlikely.
Economic Calendar Analysis
Today the US CPI will be released at 12:30 GMT. This release could impact the price of the yellow metal through a change of the value of the USD.
Meanwhile, the week's notable event overview and historical data tables have been published. Click on the link below to see the article with the data.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
Yesterday, the XAU/USD exchange rate re-tested the psychological level at 1,515.00. During Thursday morning, the rate was testing the support formed by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs at 1,504.00.
If the given moving averages hold, it is likely that a reversal north could occur in the nearest future, and the price for gold could try to surpass the given psychological level.
On the other hand, yellow metal could trade sideways against the US Dollar at the 1,510.00 mark within the following trading session. It is unlikely that bears could prevail, and the rate could decline lower than the 200-hour SMA at 1,496.04.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the low level of October 1 has provided a reference point for charting patterns. A confirmed large scale ascending pattern has been spotted and added to the chart by Dukascopy Analytics.
It can be seen that the September surge occurred in the borders of the pattern until it met with its resistance line.
Meanwhile, in the borders of the larger pattern there exists a smaller channel down pattern. It represents the commodity price's consolidation in the borders of the larger pattern.
Daily Chart
Traders short the metal
Thursday, 57% of open gold position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in short positions.
Meanwhile, in the 1000 base point range around the current metal's price the pending orders were neutral – 52% of orders were to sell and 48% to buy.