- SWFX market sentiment is 72% bullish
- Pending orders in the 1000-pip range are set to buy in 57% of cases
- US macroeconomic releases have been moved to Thursday
After reaching the targeted 1,240.00 level on Tuesday, on Wednesday gold prices declined downwards until they met with the support of the 55-hour simple moving average. After meeting the support level, the commodity price began a surge, which was expected to make an attempt to break the resistance level of the monthly R1 at 1,241.40.
Latest Fundamental Event
The Energy Information Administration released the US Crude Inventories data that came out lower-than-expected of 3.6M, compare to forecasted 0.6M.
Below are some key notes from the weekly report published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
- "U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.6 million barrels per day during the week ending November 23, 2018. "
- "Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 21.1 million barrels per day, up by 5.6% from the same period last year. "
Bush Senior has passed away and caused a change in schedules
Note that data releases, which were previously scheduled to occur in the US on Wednesday have been moved to Thursday. The reason is the announced public holiday due to the funeral of ex-President Bush.Meanwhile, at 15:00 GMT the Bank of Canada will make an interest rate announcement. This event has caused the largest fluctuations in the forex markets during 2018. This will be the top event for the month for macroeconomic event traders.
At 13:15 GMT on Thursday the ADP Non-Farm Employment change will be published and covered by Dukascopy Analytics on the bank's webinar platform and YouTube channel.
Moreover, the weekly Crude Oil Inventories will be published at 16:00 GMT. This data release causes bounced in oil prices from half a dollar up to ninety cents.
The day will end with the head of the Federal Reserve testifying before the US Congress at 23:45 GMT.
Last but not least will be the Friday's monthly US and Canadian employment data release at 13:30 GMT. This event will also be covered by Dukascopy Analytics.
XAU/USD short term forecast
During Tuesday's trading session, the yellow metal was resisted by the monthly R1 at 1,241.40 to end the trading session at the 1,235.43 mark. During Wednesday's morning hours, the yellow metal was supported by the 55-hour simple moving average to trade at the 1,235.90 mark.
In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the yellow metal will trade upwards to meet the monthly R1 at the 1,241.40 mark. In addition, the 55-hour simple moving average will support the surge during the day.
However, the gold could pass through the support of the 55-hour simple moving average to trade sideways at the 1,230.00 level on Wednesday.
Hourly Chart
From the daily chart the surge was expected for quite some time. Although, that is not the most important thing to note on the chart.Look at the added medium term ascending pattern. It could guide the metal up to the 1,260 levels once the resistance levels just above the 1,240.00 mark are broken.
Daily Chart
Short term traders close long positions
On Tuesday, 75% of open positions on the Swiss Foreign Exchange were long. On Wednesday, 72% were long.
Judging by the history of the sentiment, short term traders have closed long positions while holders remain long.
On Tuesday, 55% of trader pending orders in the 1000-pip range were set to buy the metal.
By the middle of Wednesday, 57% of trader set up orders were set to buy. Indicating that traders expect the breaking of resistance levels to reopen long positions.