GBP/USD is below SMA and 1.3100

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
Since Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair has been fluctuating between the support of the 1.3050 level and the resistance range near 1.3100. In the meantime, the pair has passed the upper trend line of the channel down pattern.

In general, the pair is waiting for the publication of the US Consumer Price Index data. The CPI will show the direction of the rate.

Economic Calendar


On Thursday, the top event of the week will take place. At 12:30 GMT, the US Consumer Price Index is bound to impact all currency pairs via an adjustment of the value of the US Dollar to the inflation numbers.

On Friday, the US Producer Price Index numbers will reveal how inflation is doing at the producer level. This rate might cause a move, if it deviates a lot from the market forecast. However, due to it being released a day after the consumer inflation, it is unlikely that the PPI numbers create a major market reaction.

GBP/USD hourly chart analysis

A potential resumption of the prior decline is expected to look for support in the 1.3050 and 1.3000 levels. If these levels fail, the weekly S1 might act as support at 1.2979.

On the other hand, a recovery of the Pound against the US Dollar would have to break the combination of the 1.3100 mark and the 50 and 100-hour simple moving averages. Higher above, the 1.3150 zone might act as resistance. If these levels fail, note the weekly simple pivot point at 1.3201 and the 1.3200 level.

Hourly Chart

GBP/USD daily candle chart analysis

The GBP/USD has broken the channel up pattern and plummeted to the 50-day simple moving average and the support range near 1.3100.

The drop occurred due to the publication of the US employment data. By Wednesday, these levels were passed. The rate traded below 1.3100.

Due to this reason, it is no longer expected that the rate could soon approach the 1.3600 mark. It is more likely that the GBP/USD will look for support in the 1.3000 mark and the ascending 100-day simple moving average.

Daily chart


Traders are mostly short
On Monday, Dukascopy trader open position volume showed that 68% of trader open positions were short.

Meanwhile, pending orders 100-points around the rate were 65% to buy.

On Wednesday, traders were 64% short, but pending orders were 75% to buy.

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