GBP/USD aims at 1.2700

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The GBP/USD surged due to the Fed rate comments. The pair moved above the 1.2590/1.2610 range and confirmed it as support two times by mid-Thursday. Meanwhile, the Bank of England was set to release its rate, which was set to remain unchanged. Due to this reason, forecasts are made pre-event.

Economic Calendar



After the US reveal their policy, the rest of the world decides how to react on Thursday. Namely, the Swiss National Bank at 08:30 GMT, the Bank of England at 12:00 GMT and the European Central Bank at 13:15 GMT are all set to make rate announcements. The CHF, GBP and EUR are set to act to the rate announcements.

However, in most cases these banks do not surprise the financial markets. Moreover, they are all expected to follow the example of the Fed and keep their rates unchanged.

Meanwhile, note that the ECB President and Vice President are set to host a press conference at 13:45 GMT. Sometimes Christine Lagarde makes comments that impact the Euro and European stock indices.

On Friday, the markets could move if one of the Markit Institute Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI survey results reveal a surprise. Starting from 08:15 GMT up to 14:45 GMT the institute will release data for Eurozone countries, the United Kingdom and the United States.

GBP/USD short-term view

In general, the rate is expected and was showing that it would continue to surge. The surge could be slowed down by the weekly R1 simple pivot point at 1.2678. Higher above note the 1.2700 mark and the November and December high level range at 1.2720/1.2730.

Meanwhile, a decline of the Pound against the US Dollar will find support in the 1.2590/1.2610 range, the weekly simple pivot point at 1.2590 and the ascending 50, 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages. If all of these levels fail, the 1.2500/1.2515 might be reached.

Hourly Chart

GBP/USD daily chart's review

On the daily candle chart, a new resistance range is marked at 1.2700/1.2720. This range appears to have held and caused the most recent decline.

It was reported last week that the decline could aim for the 200-day simple moving average near 1.2525. The SMA has been reached and is acting as support since Friday.

In regards to the future, watch the major support and resistance zone at 1.2300/1.2450 and the 50 and 100-day simple moving averages in it. Meanwhile, a move above 1.2700 could face the 1.2800/1.2850 range that acted as resistance during June and August.

Daily chart


Traders are neutral



Before the central bank events, traders were 51% short, but pending orders in the 100 pip range around the pair were 51% to sell.

After the Fed events, traders were 54% short and orders were 51% to sell. It appears that some traders expect a retracement downwards.

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