EUR/USD experienced slight volatility elevation in the previous week and moved to the upside, closing near 1.17850.
Economic Calendar Analysis
Above average volatility may be considered as a primary scenario for EUR/USD. As previously mentioned, Upcoming Auction results may rise further repricing of 3-Year, 10-Year and 30-Year yields may have higher impact on the overall dollar position in the market, in combination with fundamental data releases this week. Overall elevated volatility may occur during this week, if further indecisive re-pricing of risk- which could be considered as low to medium case scenario.
EUR/USD hourly chart analysis
The EUR/USD is currently testing the lower boundary of an ascending channel on the 1H chart, showing a loss of momentum as it hovers near the 1.17713 level. Short-term price action is compressed between the statistical median at 1.17466 and the immediate resistance cap of 1.18472, with the flattened 20-period SMA signaling a period of consolidation. A failure to hold the current rising trendline may trigger a mean-reversion move toward the 1.17544 support pivot, while a successful bounce keeps the bullish target of 1.18785 in play for the remainder of the week.Hourly Chart
EUR/USD daily chart's review
The EUR/USD is currently in a volatility squeeze and a recovery phase, trading just above the 20-day SMA and the statistical median level of 1.17466. Technical price action shows a series of higher lows through April, but momentum has stalled at the 1.18472 resistance level, where the highest probability of weekly closes resides. As long as the pair holds above the 1.16615 support, the bias remains cautiously bullish toward level of 1.18785, though the current indecision candles suggest the market is waiting for a catalyst to break out of its high-frequency consolidation zone.Daily chart
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Traders are neutral
The sentiment data for EUR/USD reveals a neutral positioning among retail traders.