EUR/USD jumps due to CPI

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
On Wednesday, at 13:30 GMT, the US Consumer Price Index and Core Consumer Price index data was released. The USD reacted by declining. The data beat the forecasts, as the US CPI came in at 0.5% instead of the forecast 0.4%. Meanwhile, the US Core CPI was revealed to be 0.6%, compared to the expected 0.5%.

The event pushed the EUR/USD currency exchange rate above various resistance levels and the 1.1400 mark.

Economic Calendar Analysis



On Thursday, at 13:30 GMT, the US Producers Price Index and Core Producers Price Index data sets are scheduled to be published. At the same time, the US weekly Unemployment Claims could cause a minor impact on the USD.

The PPI has caused EUR/USD moves from 8.6 to 11.9 pips. Meanwhile, the claims have moved the rate 6.3 to 13.9 pips. Note that quite often the claim release occurs together with other data.

The week will end with the US Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales on Friday at 13:30 GMT. The pair has moved from 8.5 to 21.7 pips.

Click on the link below to find out more about data releases of this and other currency exchange rates.

EUR/USD hourly chart's review

By 14:00 GMT, it appeared that the rate had pierced the weekly R1 simple pivot point at 1.1405 and had no resistance as high as the weekly R2 simple pivot point at 1.1446. In theory, the pair could aim at the 1.1446 level and the 1.1450 mark.

On the other hand, a potential retracement back down could look for support in the 1.1400 mark, the weekly R1 at 1.1405, before aiming at the December high level zone at 1.1382/1.1387.

Hourly Chart

EUR/USD daily chart's review

On the daily candle chart, the EUR/USD was going nowhere during the whole of December, as the rate appeared to be bouncing around the 1.1300 mark. The situation changed with the US CPI release, as the pair not only broke the resistance of the 50-day simple moving average, but also returned to early November levels.

In the near term future, the pair could test the resistance line of the channel down pattern, which had guided EUR/USD since May.

Daily chart




Long sentiment continues to drop

On Tuesday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange trader open positions were long, as 60% of open position volume was in long positions.

Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range around the pair were 67% to sell the Euro against the USD.

On Wednesday, the sentiment was 58% long and pending orders were 80% to sell. The decline of long volume could be explained by bulls taking profits.

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