The support of the 1.1074 mark managed to hold on Tuesday, and the EUR/USD rate surged above the 1.1100 level.
Since the surge on Tuesday afternoon, the rate traded almost flat in the range between 1.1110 and 1.1130. It was expected to continue to trade sideways until the US Advance GDP release and the US Federal Reserve Rate statement.
Economic Calendar Analysis
This week the EUR/USD is bound to be affected by US data and an expected rate cut.
On Wednesday, October 30, the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data will be published at 12:30 GMT. This event can be ignored, as it has been creating volatility below ten pips since October 2018.
On the same day, the US Advance GDP will be published at 12:30 GMT. This is the top US GDP data release. It has caused moves on the EUR/USD charts from 11.7 to 35.3 pips since July 2018.
Moreover, the FOMC Statement and the Federal Funds Rate are scheduled to be published at 18:00 GMT. The announcement has caused reactions from 28.6 to 57.8 base points since January 2019.
On Friday, November 1, the US Employment data set will be in focus - the Average Hourly Earnings, the Non-Farm Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate data will be published at 12:30 GMT.
This event has caused moves from 14.5 to 48.0 pips since June 2019.
At the same day, the ISM Manufacturing PMI survey results will be published at 14:00 GMT. The PMI release has caused reactions from 12.7 to 37.2 base points since June of this year.
For more detailed information take a look at the 28.10.-01.11. Event Historical Reactions publication.
Read More: 28.10-01.11 Event Historical Reactions
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
Before analysing the hourly chart, note that the technical levels of it are set to be in the background during today's fundamental events.On Wednesday morning, the rate was fluctuating between the support of the pivot point at 1.1111 and the resistance of the 200-hour simple moving average at 1.1121. In theory, the rate should surge, as the 200-hour SMA was getting pierced and the support of the 55-hour SMA was approaching from below.
In the case of a surge the rate should reach the 1.1150 level, which is providing resistance on its own and is also strengthened by the monthly first resistance of the simple pivot points.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the rate is facing the technical resistance of the 100-day simple moving average at 1.1127.
Meanwhile, the 200-day SMA was providing resistance at the 1.1200 level. In addition, at that level a 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level was located at.
Daily chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Short sentiment increases
On Tuesday, 70% of open EUR/USD position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in short positions. By the middle of Wednesday's trading the sentiment was 74% short.
Meanwhile, pending trade orders were set to sell, as 59% of orders in the 100-pip range were to sell and 41% were to buy. Previously, the orders were 66% bullish.
An assumption can be made – A Federal Reserve Rate cut is expected. This would be the third one this year. On the last two rate cuts, the US Dollar strengthened. Most likely traders expect this to occur once more.