- SWFX market sentiment is 66% bullish (+1%)
- 58% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Upcoming fundamental events: ECB President Draghi to speak, Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment
EUR/USD is likely to remain bounded by the 55- and 200-hour SMAs today.
The Greenback weakened against the Eurozone's single currency, following US CPI data release on Thursday. The EUR/USD currency pair gained 40 pips, or 0.34%, in the 10 minute timeframe, however reversed later on and retraced back to where it was before the release.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released two datasets simultaneously from which Consumer Price Index came out lower-than-expected of 0.2%, compared to negative 0.1% in the previous period. Similarly, Core Consumer Price Index too came out lower-than-expected of 0.1%, compared to 0.2% in the previous month.
The Department of Labor released Unemployment Claims data at the same time, which came out better-than-expected of 211K.
Fundamentally quiet session
The President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi is set to speak at the 8th edition of The State of the Union at 1315GMT. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan will publish its Preliminary Consumer Sentiment at 1400GMT.
EUR/USD expected to consolidate
The price has been stranded between the aforementioned SMAs for several hours. The current positioning and direction of technical indicators favour more the prevalence of bears in this session. However, the pair does face a strong support cluster formed by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs and the weekly S1 at 1.1880.
These two barriers are likely to bound the rate within the 1.1880/1.1940 range until Monday morning in case the current geopolitical tensions do not weight heavily on the US Dollar.
Hourly Chart
The common European currency continues to fall against the US Dollar for the third consecutive week. This massive decline has sent daily technical indicators in the strongly oversold territory.
This decline of the Euro has continued down to a 2018 low of 1.1850. The rate reversed near the monthly S1 at 1.1825 on Wednesday, but nevertheless remains pressured by the 200-day SMA near 1.20. Thus, it is likely that the Euro hinders near this area for several sessions prior to resuming its general movement north.
Daily Chart
Bulls remain in charge
EUR/USD remains strongly bullish with 66% of open positions being long (+1%).
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 54% bullish and the US Dollar is 63% bearish.
The market sentiment of OANDA has increased by one percentage point to 54% long positions. Meanwhile, Saxo Bank clients still remain bearish with 54% of open positions being short (+1%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility