- SWFX market sentiment is 69% bullish
- Pending orders in the 100-pip range are 55% to SELL
- US Building Permits
After making an attempt to break the combined resistance of the hourly SMAs, the USD/JPY pair booked a new low level on Friday. Moreover, during the decline a notable pivot point was passed at the 105.80 mark.
The Greenback fluctuated based on the releases of the controversial reports from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Philadelphia and the US Department of Labour on Thursday
The three simultaneously released reports created small increase in volatility in the financial currency market. The US unemployment claims data came out slightly better than expected, and with a help of the positive Empire State manufacturing index data
However, the Philly Fed manufacturing index data came out a bit short of expectations, as the divergence did not surprise the markets enough for a correction.
US Building Permits
The fully booked week has turned out into a disappointment. The reason for that is the fact that almost all released US data has hit the forecasts and caused only small fluctuations in the currency markets.
However, we still have one data release scheduled. Namely, the US Building Permits and Housing Starts data sets will be released at 12:30 GMT. This release will end the busy US data week.
To see the live coverage of the data release tune in to the Dukascopy webinar platform ten minutes before the data is released.
USD/JPY fails to overcome 106.40
The US Dollar was trading in the same range against the Yen during the most of the session on Thursday. The pair failed to move above the 106.40 mark, as the northern barrier was limited by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP. As a result, the pair was pushed back to 106.00 during the Asian session.Given that this resistance is likewise reinforced by SMAs on the four-hour chart, it is expected that the Greenback fails to overcome this area today.
The most likely downside target should be the 2017 low of 105.35. Meanwhile, the pair might still go for a re-test of the 106.40 area, thus limiting the expected fall to 105.60.
Some volatility might be introduced in response to US Building Permits released at 1230GMT; however, the projected trading range is unlikely to be breached.
Hourly Chart
The daily chart has not given any additional information during the past week. The reason for that is the fact that the pair has been trading in an almost horizontal pattern after breaking out from the previously active channel down pattern.
In regards to the future, we are still expecting the reveal of a new long term pattern.
Daily chart
SWFX traders are still on the long side, as 69% of open positions were bullish during the morning hours.
However, trader set up orders remain bullish, as 56% of trader set up orders were to buy the US Dollar in favour to the Japanese Yen.
Meanwhile, the market sentiment of OANDA traders remains strongly bullish with 68% long positions. In addition, Saxo bank traders are 58% bullish in regards to this pair.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility