EUR/USD outlook

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

Amid the overall strengthening of the DXY, the FX pair moved to the downside, closing near 1.16364.


Economic Calendar Analysis


Continuing the previous week's trend, moderate levels of volatility may persist throughout the week, considering the fundamental data releases scheduled.

EUR/USD hourly chart analysis

EUR/USD is in a short-term bounce within a broader downtrend. It broke above the 50-hour moving average but is struggling near resistance around 1.1700. Support lies at 1.1680 and 1.1650. A drop below 1.1650 could resume the downtrend, while a clear break above 1.1720 may signal a deeper correction.

Hourly Chart

EUR/USD daily chart's review

EUR/USD reveals a market in a bearish correction from late 2025 peaks, with the current price sitting at 1.16835. This retreat follows a high of 1.18300, and the pair is now hovering just above a significant support cluster where the 100-day SMA orange at 1.16641 and the 50-day SMA green at 1.16479 converge. While the overall long-term trend remains supported by the rising 200-day SMA red at 1.15738, the immediate outlook depends on the market's ability to hold the 1.16000 psychological floor. A breakdown below this level could lead to a test of the 200-day SMA, whereas a bounce from this zone would set the stage for a recovery attempt toward the 1.17880 resistance.



Daily chart




Traders are indecisive






Retail sentiment for EUR/USD is currently balanced with a slight lean toward buying, showing 50.07% of traders in long positions and 49.93% in short positions.

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