By late Monday, the rate was finding support in the weekly R1 simple pivot point at 1.1116 and resistance near 1.1135.
Economic Calendar Analysis
This week, the top event of them all is scheduled. On Wednesday, at 18:00 GMT, the US Federal Reserve is set to cut interest rates.
The market consensus is that the Fed will cut by 0.25%. However, some expect that the Fed might cut even 0.50%. In the case of the larger cut, the US Dollar would decline.
However, in most cases, there is more impact from the follow-up press conference than the rate announcement. The press conference of the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell is scheduled for 18:30 GMT.
Prior to the Fed event, some volatility might be caused by a surprise in the US monthly Retail Sales data sets at 12:30 GMT.
After the Fed event, there are two more central bank events that might not only impact the underlying currencies, but also cause a spillover into other currency pairs. Namely, if the Bank of England causes a major surge of the Pound against the US Dollar, the selling of the USD will cause a surge of the EUR/USD.
The Bank of England is set to keep the Official Bank Rate at 5.00% on Thursday at 11:00 GMT. It is forecast that 2 of the 9 monetary policy committee members will vote for a rate cut, but 7 of 9 are set to vote for keeping rates unchanged.
On Friday, watch the Japanese Yen during the Asian session. The Bank of Japan is expected to announce its monetary policy. Despite the BoJ Policy Rate being forecast to remain unchanged, markets might move due to comments from the central bankers.
The BoJ does not give a predetermined time for its announcements, as it wants to avoid unnecessary speculation from market participants.
EUR/USD hourly chart analysis
A move above 1.1140 is expected to result in the rate testing the resistance of the weekly R2 at 1.1159 and the 1.1160/1.1175 zone. In the case of the rate passing above these levels, the currency pair is bound to test the 1.1190/1.1200 range, which marks the August high levels.On the other hand, a decline of the Euro against the US Dollar would result in the rate looking for support in the weekly R1 at 1.1116 and the lower trend line of the channel up pattern. If the rate moves below the trend line, it could signal the end of the short term surge. Further below, note that the pair is expected to look for support in the 1.1100 mark and the 50-hour simple moving average. Even further down, note the 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages, the weekly simple pivot point at 1.1059 and the 1.1040/1.1060.
Hourly Chart
EUR/USD daily chart's review
On the daily candle chart, the rate has returned to the 1.1130/1.1200 resistance zone that has kept the pair down in August and September.Meanwhile, take into account that the 1.1005 level acted as resistance in early August and then as support in mid-September. It appears that it might be the upper border of a support and resistance zone.
Daily chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Traders remain short
This week, on Monday, traders were still bearish, as 71% of volume was in short positions.
Meanwhile, pending orders in the 100-base point range around the pair were 50% to buy and sell.
On Thursday, traders were 68% short and orders were 57% to sell.