Note that the 1.2245 level is the February high level, which reversed the pair's recovery and caused a 4.30% decline.
Economic Calendar Analysis
At 12:30 GMT on Thursday, the US Preliminary GDP is set to be published. This event has caused EUR/USD moves from 6.3 to 15.1 pips. Note that in most cases the rate has moved below ten pips, which is in the range of normal volatility. Namely, the event has not caused actual moves.
Also on Thursday, the weekly US Unemployment Claims are set to be published at 12:30 GMT. Our analysts have been ignoring this event since February, as it did not have an impact on the USD. This week, another check of the data was done.
The event supposedly caused a notable move on May 13, when the EUR/USD moved 19.4 pips in the span of ten minutes. However, that was due to three data sets being released at the same time. Namely, the US PPI and Core PPI showed better than expected results and combined with the Unemployment Claims caused an increase of volatility.
Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases of this and other currency exchange rates.
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
In the case of the 1.2240/1.2245 zone holding, the rate could decline to the 55-hour simple moving average near 1.2210. Below this level, the weekly R1 simple pivot point at 1.2201 and the 1.2200 mark could provide support. In addition, the 100-hour simple moving average could support this level.Moreover, a channel up pattern was spotted on Friday. The pattern captures the rate's surge since May 13. Take into account that the lower trend line of the pattern on Friday was crossing the 1.2200 level.
On the other hand, a potential breaking of the resistance of the 1.2240/1.2245 zone could result in a surge first to the 1.2250 level and afterwards the 1.2257 level, where the weekly R2 simple pivot point was located at.
Hourly Chart
EUR/USD daily chart's review
On the daily candle chart, the rate has reached the February high just below the 1.2250 level. If this level gets passed, the 2021 high near 1.2350 could be targeted.In the meantime, the rate remains in a channel up pattern, which has guided the rate up since the start of April.
Daily chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Traders remain short
On Friday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange trader open positions were short, as 66% of open position volume was in short positions.
On Thursday, 65% of volume was short.
On Friday, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range around the pair were 57% to buy the pair.