During Friday morning hours, the yellow metal was testing the resistance of the 1,950.00 level. If the level would fail to keep the price down, the metal would have no technical resistance as high as 2,056.09.
Due to that reason round price levels should be evaluated for resistance and support.
Economic Calendar Analysis
The first week of the month is upcoming. It is set to reveal monthly data sets, which are expected to cause notable currency rate adjustments.
On Tuesday, at 14:00 GMT the US ISM Manufacturing PMI is set to be published.
At 12:15 on Wednesday, the ADP Non-Farm Payrolls could cause a move from 5.5 to 17.7 pips. Dukascopy Analytics usually ignore this event because prior to August the EUR/USD move range was 5.5 to 8.4 pips. The early August release caused a 17.7 pip move.
On Thursday, watch the economic calendar two times during the day. At 12:30 the weekly US Unemployment Claims are set to be released. At 14:00 GMT, the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI results will be published.
On Friday, both Canada and the US are set to release their monthly employment data at 12:30 GMT. Depending on the currencies that one trades, one needs to look at different data tables, as reactions to the event vary.
Click on the link below to see the historical reaction tables.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
After experiencing a sharp surge and decline on Thursday, on Friday morning, the yellow metal's price was testing the resistance of the 1,950.00 level. The 1,950.00 level was also strengthened by the 200-hour simple moving average.
If the 1,950.00 mark fails to keep the rate down, the metal could surge and test round price level resistances until it reaches the 2,000.00 level.
On the other hand, the 200-hour SMA and the 1,950.00 level could cause a decline. A decline would immediately look for support in the 55 and 100-hour SMAs near 1,935.00.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the price bounced off the lower trend line of the long term channel up pattern. From a technical perspective, the pattern was the cause of the Wednesday surge.
Daily Candle Chart
Traders remain long
On Thursday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange the sentiment was long, as of total open position volume 57% was long.
By the middle of Friday's trading, the sentiment had remained intact, as 56% of volume was long.
Meanwhile, in the 1000-pip range around the metal's price the orders were 98% to buy.
Previously, orders were 74% to buy.