The yellow metal's surge bounced off the 2,015.00 level, which resulted in a retracement back down.
On Wednesday morning, the price reached the combined support of the 55 and 200-hour simple moving averages and the lower trend line of the channel up pattern just above 1,980.00.
Economic Calendar Analysis
Despite the t week having high impact events on the calendar, Dukascopy Analytics do not expect notable macroeconomic data caused moves.
First of all, note that the FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday will not have a rate announcement and a statement. The Meeting Minutes on their own were excluded from the historical data analysis after for a half-year period it caused only four pip moves on the EUR/USD. Equivalent minor moves occurred on other pairs.
On Thursday, the weekly US Unemployment Claims are set to be published at 12:30 GMT. The event has caused minor moves throughout July.
Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
The metal has two possible scenarios. It is either going to continue its surge or decline.
In the case of a surge, the metal would test psychological resistance levels. Namely, round price levels have trade orders set around them and can stop a surge or change the direction of the rate. Take into account the 2,000.00 and 2,015.00 level, as they have shown strength.
Meanwhile, a decline would test technical support levels, which also have proven that they can impact the rate. The lower trend line of the channel up pattern, the 55 and 200-hour simple moving averages are providing support from 1,981.17 to 1,990.00.
In the case of these support levels failing to keep commodity from declining, the price could decline to the 100-hour simple moving average, which was located below the 1,970.00 level.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the price has passed the last resistance of the Fibonacci retracement levels that were drawn by mapping this summer's surge. Next resistance would be the high level of early August.
Daily Candle Chart
Sentiment remains balanced
Since Tuesday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange the sentiment was neutral, as of total open position volume 52% was long.
Meanwhile, in the 1000-pip range around the metal's price the orders were 93% to buy.
Trader are remaining neutral. However, most are ready to buy in the case of the metal starting a move in the aftermath of the sideways trading.