EUR/USD expects FOMC announcements

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

On Tuesday morning, the EUR/USD was squeezed in between the support of hourly simple moving averages and the resistance of the simple weekly pivot point.

In general, the rate was most likely going to trade sideways near 1.1150, between the previously described technical levels, until the Wednesday's Federal Reserve announcements at 18:00 GMT.

Latest Fundamental Event Report

The European Common Currency depreciated against the US Dollar, following the US Advance GDP data release on Friday at 12:30 GMT. The EUR/USD exchange currency rate lost 12 pips or 0.11% right after the release. The Euro continued trading at the 1.1130 level against the US Dollar.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the US Advance GDP data, which came out better-than-expected of 2.1% compared with the forecast of 1.8%.

According to the official release: "The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased."


US FOMC in focus



This week top attention will be paid to the US Federal Reserve's Federal Open market Committee announcements on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT.

In general, the markets expect a US Dollar interest rate cut. Besides that each monetary policy announcement since November 2018 has caused a move on the EUR/USD in the range from 28.0 to 57.8.

Meanwhile, on Tuesday the US CB Consumer Confidence publication could cause a move above ten base points at 14:00 GMT.

In addition, note that the financial media might comment and look at the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change that is scheduled to be published on Wednesday at 12:15 GMT.

However, historical data reveals that during the time period of five minutes before the release and five minutes afterwards the EUR/USD has moved from 9.6 to 15.3 pips since August 2018.

On Thursday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be published at 14:00 GMT. This event has caused moves from 13.1 to 20.9 base points.

On Friday, the US employment data will be published. It will consist of the US Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change and the official Unemployment Rate. This release has caused moves from 13.3 to 48.0 base points.

EUR/USD hourly chart's review

On Tuesday morning, the EUR/USD was finding support in the 55 and 100-hour simple moving averages near 1.1135. Meanwhile, the rate was facing the resistance of the weekly pivot point at 1.1153.

In general, the pair was expected to break the technical resistance of the weekly pivot point. In the aftermath of such event the rate would surge up to the 200-hour simple moving average, which on Tuesday was located at the 1.1175 level.

On the other hand, the weekly PP at 1.1153 could hold its ground forcing the pair to trade sideways.

Hourly Chart



Currently, on the daily candle chart there are no additional technical support or resistance levels to note.

The closest by technical support was located at 1.1050. Meanwhile, closest by technical resistance was provided by a 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1203.

Meanwhile, take into account that the daily simple moving averages were located near 1.1250. It indicates that the pair is oversold. Daily chart


Traders remain short on EUR/USD

Since Friday, 65% of open EUR/USD position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in short positions.

Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in 100-pip range around the pair were bearish, as 56% of all orders were set to sell and 44% were to buy.

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