EUR/USD likely to trade down

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair traded below the resistance of the 55- and 100-hour simple moving averages, which during the morning hours were located at 1.1240.

If the simple moving averages continues to push the pair down, the rate should eventually reach the 2018/2019 minimum at 1.1195.

Latest Fundamental Event

The European Common Currency traded sideways against the US Dollar, following the US Retail Sales data release on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. The EUR/USD exchange currency rate lost 9 pips or 0.08% right after the release. The Euro continued trading at the 1.1245 level against the US Dollar.

Census Bureau released the US Core Retail Sales data that came out better-than-expected of 1.2% compared with forecast 0.7%.

According to experts, the US retail sales showed the fastest growth since late 2017. In March, sales for automobiles, petrol, furniture and clothing surged. This advance might signal that consumers tend to spend more due to the healthy job market.




Last week of the month



During this week there will be a couple of macroeconomic events to watch, avoid or trade.

First, the Canadian central bank will publish their interest rate on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT.

On Thursday, the US Durable Goods Orders data will be published at 12:30 GMT. This event can cause a move of up to 20 base points.

The data will end on Friday, as at 12:30 GMT the US Advance GDP will be published. This is the top US data set, which has the largest impact on the USD.

Meanwhile, check out the previous data release covers and economic calendar analysis on the Dukascopy Webinars YouTube channel.

Click Here: YouTube Channel

EUR/USD hourly chart's review

The EUR/USD rate is being pushed down by the 55- and 100-hour simple moving averages, which on Wednesday were located at the 1.1240 level.

In general, it is expected, that the simple moving averages will push the currency exchange rate down to the 2018/2019 minimum located ar 1.1195.

On the other hand, the rate might find support in the weekly S1 located at the 1.1209 mark and reverse north to re-test the given SMAs.

Hourly Chart



As it was previously stated throughout last week, main moves were caused by the 55-day SMA. On Wednesday, the given SMA pushed the EUR/USD rate down.

In regards to the future, there is nothing to add. The 55-day SMA will come down and continue to provide resistance to the currency pair.

Daily chart


Traders short the pair

On the Swiss Foreign Exchange, 72% of the total open position volume was in short positions.

Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range were bearish. Namely, 54% of all orders were set to sell.

Actual Topics

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