XAG/USD 1H Chart: Channel Down

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Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
Silver had been trading very consistently inside the bounds of a channel down pattern up until recently when it started sketching some interesting developments on the hourly chart. The pair has now set a ground at 16.27 and attempted a double bottom, but failed to break the neck-line. We now have two scenarios regarding the failure – firstly, a descending triangle has been sketched and will be confirmed if XAG/USD steps foot below the previous trend-line of the channel, implying bearish pressures and a break below 16.27. The second scenario considers the failure to be just part of a retracement of the broken channel boundary and suggests that the neck-line could still break at 16.53 and set a bullish motion.

  Level  Rationale     Indicator 30M 1H 4H
R4 16.56 Cloud Resistance     MACD (12; 26; 9) Buy Buy Sell
R3 16.51 Upper Bollinger Band     RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral
R2 16.45 Triangle Upper trend-line     Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Neutral Sell Sell
R1 16.41 Cloud Resistance; 20&55-hour SMAs     ADX (14) Neutral Neutral Sell
S1 16.35 Channel Upper trend-line     CCI (14) Buy Neutral Neutral
S2 16.29 Bottom Bollinger Band     AROON (14) Buy Buy Buy
S3 16.27 Double Bottom     Alligator (13; 8; 5) Neutral Buy Sell
S4 16.20 Monthly S2     SAR (0.02; 0.2) Sell Buy Buy
          Aggregate → ↘ ↘
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