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The pattern started on 1st of June, 2012, when pair started appreciating from 0.9582; at the moment pair is trading at Fibonacci retracement (38.2% of move since 1st of June, 2012) at 1.0219; pattern's support is at 1.0167; pattern's peaks are at 1.0614/25. The Stochastic indicator on 1D horizon and technical indicators on aggregate on 1W horizon send a buy signal suggesting that pair might rebound from pattern's support. The SWFX market sentiment is bullish as 66% of traders hold long positions on the pair expecting its recovery. In addition, 52% of all pending orders on the pair are to buy. Long traders could focus on weekly pivot (S2)/Bollinger's band at 1.0239/54, weekly pivot (S1)/200 bar SMA at 1.0296/317, Fibonacci retracement (23.6%)/weekly pivot (PP) at 1.0371/85 and 20 bar SMA/weekly pivot (R1) at 1.0420/42.
The Stochastic indicator on 1W horizon suggests that we might see a bearish rally on the pair in the near future. Short traders could focus on pattern's support/weekly pivot (S3) at 1.0167/50 and Fibonacci retracements at 1.0098 (50%) and 0.9976 (61.8%). Parity condition should introduce significant support as well.
Main fundamental events who might have impact on the development of the pair are US FOMC Meeting Minutes on 4th of October, G7 meeting on 10th of October and Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes on 15th of October.
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