EUR/USD erases gains, returns to monthly PP

The bears have completely controlled the market on Thursday. They eliminated all gains that were accumulated over Wednesday and pushed the cross back towards the monthly pivot and 20-day SMA at 1.1376. Consolidation under here will shift the risks considerably to the downside and the focus will consequently turn to the weekly S1 at 1.1320, the next nearest support line. We would allow for shallow dips down to the 55-day SMA, which will offer bid at 1.1263. Meanwhile, daily technical indicators are no longer backing the bullish case.  

The negative gap between long and short SWFX market positions amounts to 12 percentage points in the morning on May 13, down from 14 pp yesterday. However, pending orders in both 50 and 100-pip ranges from the spot price are bid in more than 50% of all cases.