USD/RUB
We are expecting the overall market turmoil to weight on the Ruble in the Q1. Moreover, the Presidential elections in Russia in March this year will also augment the political uncertainty. In our view, during the Q1 of 2012 the Ruble will remain weak, but in general, the outlook for the Russian economy is positive and rather stable.
Throughout the year when we are looking forward to improvement of the global environment the economic fundamentals may be as well important for the currency. Starting from at least the second half of the year we believe that the Ruble will begin strengthening.
The Ruble is a good currency to invest in. Therefore, we think it has been undervalued because of the overall market sentiment. It has been traded quite badly as most of the smaller emerging currencies are. However, the Ruble will be definitely regarded as a much more attractive currency during 2012 and closer to the end of the year.
Our forecast for the pair USD/RUB in the Q1 is 32.7, it is clearly weaker by 5% in comparison to the current level. For EUR/RUB the forecast is slightly less because of our EUR/USD expectation; for the Q1 it is 41.2.
Our six-month forecast for USD/RUB is 30.8, pretty similar to the current level. For the EUR/RUB we foresee the 40.1 level.
For the twelve-month period we predict USD/RUB to reach 29, while the EUR/USD will be enjoying the 39 mark level.