NZD/JPY 1H Chart: Two scenarios possible

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

Indicator 4H 1D 1W
MACD (12; 26; 9) Buy Sell Sell
RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral
Stochastic (5; 3) Buy Sell Sell
Alligator (13; 8; 5) Buy Sell Sell
SAR (0.02; 0.2) Buy Sell Buy
Aggregate

After testing a three-month high of 81.50 late in January, the bearish sentiment took the upper hand in the market and stranded the NZD/JPY exchange rate in a descending channel. The Kiwi tested the senior channel at 77.80 mid-February and has since edged higher in another short-term formation. 

The existence of the monthly S1 at 79.20 has restricted the pair's movement above this level for two weeks now. This line together with the dashed trend-line has formed a triangle-like formation. The positioning of this pattern and the prevailing channel down suggest that the rate could breach this up-trend and move lower down to the 78.00/77.50 area during the following trading sessions. In order to confirm this scenario, the pair has to breach the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs at 78.70. 

Conversely, a breakout of 79.20 would push the rate towards the senior channel, the weekly R2 and the 50.00% Fibo retracement located at 80.00.

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