- SWFX market sentiment is 54% bearish
- 55% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Upcoming data releases: US Core Retail Sales m/m, US Retail Sales m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index, FOMC Member Bostic to speak
Despite the resistance of the 55- and 100-hour SMAs, there is some upside potential apparent in this session.
The Greenback weakened against the Eurozone's single currency, following the US Consumer Price Index data on Wednesday. The EUR/ USD currency gained only two pips, or 0.01%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.2386 area.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed lower-than-expected data in Consumer Price Index in March. On month-to-month basis CPI showed its first decrease in 10 months by 0.1%, compared to a growth of 0.2% in the prior month. However, economists had forecast it to stay unchanged, the drop was caused by the decline in gasoline costs. Moreover, rising prices for rental accommodation and healthcare continued to put pressure on underlying inflation.
US Retail Sales
The US Census Bureau is set to release Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales for March at 1230GMT. The core reading is expected to increase by 0.2%, while the value of sales at the retail level should see a more solid growth of 0.4%. The Empire State Manufacturing Index is published at the same time.
The President of the Federal Bank of Atlanta Raphael Bostic is due to speak about the economy at the Shoals Chamber of Commerce at 1715GMT.
EUR/USD tests 1.2340 area
The Euro was trading along the 100-hour SMA on Friday, with the 200-hour moving average working as a strong support. Being stranded by these two barriers, the pair failed to gain momentum and thus ended the session with no change to its positioning.The general tendency continues to be northwards; thus, a surge is likely to follow if the Euro surpasses the 55– and 100-hour SMAs at 1.2340. Technical indicators are likewise bullish for this session. A breakout is expected to occur during the second part of the day. The upside target is the weekly R1 at 1.24, while the senior channel is likewise located nearby.
In case the bearish sentiment prevails, the rate should breach the 200-hour SMA and a two-week channel up. As a result, the Euro should be sent towards the weekly S1 at 1.2260.
Hourly Chart
Despite breaching the 55-hour SMA late in March, the Euro managed to reverse from the long-term channel and return back to this line. However, it is still expected that the pair ends this correction north and targets the 1.2150 area this week where the monthly S1, the 100-hour SMA and the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement are located.
Daily Chart
Bearish sentiment grows stronger
The SWFX market sentiment for EUR/USD is 54% bearish.
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 60% bearish and the US Dollar is 56% bullish.
The bearish sentiment of OANDA traders stands at 58% (+1%). Saxo Bank clients share the same sentiment with 61% of open positions being short (+1%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility