- SWFX market sentiment is 64% bearish (+3%)
- 53% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are to BUY the Greenback
- Notable resistance around 112.85
- Upcoming events: US NFIB Small Business Index, US JOLTS Job Openings, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
The Greenback feel sharply against the Japanese Yen on the disappointing labour market data. . The USD/JPY currency pair dropped 23 base points or 0.20% to the 113.07 level.
The US employment growth weakened significantly in December due to a decrease in retail jobs, while a surge in monthly pay gains indicated the labour market strength, which could enable the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates in Spring. The Labour Department stated that the non-farm payrolls increased 148K in the reported month, following an upwardly revised 252K in November. Job growth is anticipated to moderate as the labour market remains close to full employment, though with some chances to get a boost from $1.5T tax cuts package.
Uneventful day
The economic calendar for this session includes several fundamental events with minor importance, namely, the US NFIB Small Business Index, US JOLTS Job Openings and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism to be released at 1100GMT and 1500GMT, respectively. The publication time for the last one remains tentative.
USD/JPY down 47 points
The five-day surge of the Dollar against the Yen was stopped by the upper trend-line of medium scale symmetrical triangle, as expected. In result of a rebound, the pair started new trading session from the monthly PP at 112.62. After such rapid drops traders usually try to restore lost positions.However, in this case the recovery is not expected to last for long, as northern side is blocked by a combination of the weekly PP, the 55- and 100-hour SMAs. Accordingly, the pair is expected to continue moving to the opposite side of triangle, towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement level located at the 112.45 mark. In support of this assumption, most of the pending orders in 50-pip range are set to sell.
Hourly chart
Despite showing high volatility in both directions on Monday, the Greenback closed the given session with slight losses against the Yen.
This bearish momentum strengthened early on Tuesday, as the pair had already managed to breach the 55-day SMA and the weekly and monthly PPs by the time of this analysis. It is likely that the same situation holds during this session, thus leaving the rate below the 55-day SMA.
Daily chart
The bearish SWFX market sentiment has strengthened today with 64% short positions (+3%). Meanwhile, 57% of pending orders are to buy the Greenback (unchanged from Monday).
The market sentiment of OANDA traders is at equilibrium on the pair (-3%). The market sentiment of Saxo Bank has changed to bullish, as 51% of open positions are long (+1%).